A new analysis by the Energy Watch Group shows the International Energy Agency has provided misleading scenarios in the case of solar power generation. The IEA has repeatedly ignored the rapid market growth of renewable energies in its World Energy Outlooks (WEO), particularly the added capacity of PV. In the WEO 2015 it has used outdated data, e.g. for 2014, when market growth was not taken into consideration. Newly added PV capacity for the year 2015 was ignored as well, although the data was already known in September 2015.
For 2015, an estimate of international market research analysts suggests an annual added capacity of PV of 55-60 GW. In the WEO, no concrete added capacity numbers are mentioned. Additionally, the IEA has not consiered the replacement of old PV plants starting from 2035. Taking this into consideration, assumptions of the IEA mean that the net added capacity starts to decline again from 2035.
As the cost of PV will further continue to decline, it will stimulate growth of PV installations worldwide. At the same time more financial investors are turning their back on fossil and nuclear projects in favor of renewable energies. Given those developments, the IEA forecast for PV and other renewable energy sources appear completely incomprehensible.
Energy Watch Group Analysis on IEA’s outlook for solar power generation.