UK weather: one in four chance of hottest summer ever, says Met Office

The Met Office has said it is 25% likely that Britain will experience its hottest summer on record this year – with a 10% chance that it will be the coolest.

Studied over a three-month period, the June-July-August months are likely to see slightly above average temperatures – with a one in four chance they could topple previous records. 

However, the Met Office has stressed that warm temperatures do not necessarily mean sunshine. This was evident in the spring – which is set to be the warmest on record.

The latest 30-day forecast commissioned by the organisation’s forecasters predicts that weather is now expected to settle with many areas still enjoying warm sunshine. The north-west, however, is likely to endure some showers.

A Met Office blog said, “From mid-June to early July, the indications are that the weather will be close to what is climatologically normal for this time of year – giving us a tendency for occasional spells of unsettled weather interspersed with fine and warm spells, much as we have seen recently.” 

Average temperatures across the day and night have been predicted to be just under 60F (15.25C) – which could make this summer one of the warmest on record. The current record is still the summer of 2006, where the average temperature was 15.78C.

The Met Office is hesitant to broadcast ‘barbeque summers’, as past predictions of heatwaves and record breaking temperatures have been followed by disastrous flooding and downpours.

The organisation issued warnings earlier this year that summer floods will be more common due to climate change. The worst case scenario would see a dramatic rise in flash floods, five times more than in recent studies.

Experts have also warned of other extremities in British weather, from gale-force winds and increasing flooding, as the average temperature warms.

Photo: Gerwin Sturm via Flickr

Further reading:

UK weather will change rapidly because of climate change, experts say

UK weather: spring set to be third hottest on record

Climate change will make summer floods more common, says met office

UK braced for further exceptional weather

UK weather: floods expected in midlands and Yorkshire as heavy rain is forecast