Jupiter’s Charlie Thomas: Joining the Dots Between Climate Change and Strategic Risks

The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 11^th annual Global Risk Report named “failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation” as the top global risk for 2016 and beyond, making a case for linking this to other high-ranking risks such as “large-scale involuntary migration” and “water crises”.

The findings reflect a shift in perceptions, to the point where an understanding of the link between these risks should inform political and investment decisions for years to come, according to Charlie Thomas, manager of the Jupiter Ecology Fund.

The release of the 11^th edition of the WEF’s Global Risk Report was one of the most compelling aspects of this annual summit in Davos. This insightful report, which shows the results of a survey of 750 WEF members, sent a clear message: climate change risk is now understood as one of the key long term risks faced by the global economy in terms of its perceived likelihood and economic severity.

Syria – where climate change meets government failure?

Particularly interesting is the recognition of the link between failure to deal with climate-change and risks such as “profound social instability” and “large-scale involuntary migration”. Although these links are softer by degrees than, say, climate change risk and extreme weather events, academic research suggests it is indeed a link that needs to be taken seriously: extreme climate events are expected to lead to the further displacement of populations. When combined with poor governance (or even government failure) the level of unforced migration and social instability has the potential to become acute – as the recent exodus from Syria demonstrates.

Particularly interesting is the recognition of the link between failure to deal with climate-change and risks such as “profound social instability” and “large-scale involuntary migration”. Although these links are softer by degrees than, say, climate change risk and extreme weather events, academic research suggests it is indeed a link that needs to be taken seriously: extreme climate events are expected to lead to the further displacement of populations. When combined with poor governance (or even government failure) the level of unforced migration and social instability has the potential to become acute – as the recent exodus from Syria demonstrates.

The conflict in Syria and its causes are obviously immensely complex. However, an academic paper entitled “Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought” published in the influential US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has suggested that “human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict”. The paper incorporates climate change modelling and research on the link between climate and conflict.

The Global Risks Landscape

Source: World Economic Forum

Between 2007 and 2010, Syria and the wider Fertile Crescent suffered the worst drought on instrumental record. This led to massive agricultural failures that were exacerbated by unsustainable policies introduced earlier by President Hafez al-Assad (1971-2000) that led to the depletion of groundwater supplies and left Syria vulnerable to drought.

The 2007-2010 drought forced an estimated 1.5 million people from rural areas, putting pressure on urban centres. Climate models suggest that the extremity of the drought could not be explained as an anomaly due to natural causes, but was rather exacerbated by the longer-term drying trend in the region as a result of human-induced climate change. The report’s authors argue there is “a connecting path running from human interference with climate to severe droughts to agricultural collapse and mass human migration.”