National Grid’s 2015/16 Winter Outlook Report was published today. The report includes their latest detailed analysis on the supply and demand position of both gas and electricity for the coming winter. For electricity margins will continue to be tight but manageable throughout the winter period. For gas, they expect that the UK will be well supplied this winter
On electricity they say “margins are manageable and remain unchanged” adding: “We (National Grid) have a range of tools available to support security of supply and help balance the system.” The say: “There is a capacity margin of 5.1%.” On gas they say: “analysis shows GB supplies can meet gas demand even under severe weather conditions for
an extended period of time.”
Commenting on National Grid’s Winter Outlook report, Richard Black, Director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said media reports warning of blackouts did not reflect reality, saying: “The fact is that generation-related electricity outages are vanishingly rare – just one in the last ten years – almost all power cuts are down to problems with local distribution of electricity, caused by bad weather and other issues,” he said.
“But stories warning of the risk of blackouts continue to be written, which is likely to confuse readers, given that their own experience will be of the lights, in general, staying on.
“Unfounded warnings about security of supply simply serve to distract from the other serious debates we need to have about energy policy, such as how we cut greenhouse gas emissions whilst keeping people’s bills manageable.”
A report by the ECIU this week found that headlines warning that the ‘lights will go out’ over the last 10 years have not reflected the experience of energy users.
Association for Decentralised Energy Director Dr Tim Rotheray said: “Demand side services are an excellent way for businesses to get paid without disrupting day to day operations. This income is often used to offset energy bills and fund energy efficiency initiatives. It also helps keep everyone’s bill down by avoiding the need to waste money on building costly new power stations.
“We should increasingly seize the opportunity demand side response gives us to put the energy customer at the heart of creating a secure, affordable and low carbon energy system for the future.”
Tanuja Randery, President UK & Ireland at Schneider Electric comments: “Energy margins will be at their tightest during the coldest hours of winter. It is the management of energy during these critical winter hours that will determine if the UK is plunged into darkness.
“The energy dilemma can be addressed by a multitude of forces. Most notably, the UK’s provisioning of reserve capacity, combined with active network management and integrating renewables into the grid.
“Active network management is at the heart of the UK’s energy predicament. Real-time monitoring of production, demand and flows across the grid, allow for peaks to be forecast and accommodated.
“The immediate impact of the winter capacity crunch will be an extra 50 pence on household energy bills. For large consumers of energy in industries, that could mean planned downtime during the coldest peaks. In the long term, there must be a continued focus on creating a system that uses less energy and gains more power from renewable sources. Large energy-consuming industries include the chemicals sector and food and drink industry, so to place emphasis here will drive the most benefits. The focus must be on identifying, and acting on opportunities for energy savings.
“Overall, energy capacity has dropped because of the closure of three UK power stations since last winter. Investment in renewable energy must be encouraged as a means of avoiding future energy crunches. Just 9.5% of the UK’s electricity was generated by on- and offshore wind in 2014, but much more green energy production is possible. Cuts to subsidies and the curtailment of significant renewable energy projects needs to be reviewed, and quickly.”
Ben Irons, a Director at Aurora Energy Research, said: “Any concerns on capacity of supply should distinguish the short term outlook, with the medium and longer term horizon.
“From 2018 the Government¹s capacity mechanism will come into effect and is already oversubscribed. The mixture of gas, demand response, interconnection and storage this will bring forward, mean capacity shortages won¹t be an issue.
“We have noted reports that the UK¹s remaining coal-fired power stations may be closed by 2023 or the end of 2020. The majority of any lost generation capacity from coal closures can simply be replaced by running existing under-utilised combined-cycle gas turbines longer. But our independent analysis also shows that five to eight years to bring forward any additional gas capacity is more than sufficient to close any generation gap.
“Moreover, there were a number of consented new build gas projects not winning contracts in last year¹s capacity market auction and more have emerged since that could comfortably deliver new capacity over the required timeframe.”
Download the report here.
New Zealand to Switch to Fully Renewable Energy by 2035
New Zealand’s prime minister-elect Jacinda Ardern is already taking steps towards reducing the country’s carbon footprint. She signed a coalition deal with NZ First in October, aiming to generate 100% of the country’s energy from renewable sources by 2035.
New Zealand is already one of the greenest countries in the world, sourcing over 80% of its energy for its 4.7 million people from renewable resources like hydroelectric, geothermal and wind. The majority of its electricity comes from hydro-power, which generated 60% of the country’s energy in 2016. Last winter, renewable generation peaked at 93%.
Now, Ardern is taking on the challenge of eliminating New Zealand’s remaining use of fossil fuels. One of the biggest obstacles will be filling in the gap left by hydropower sources during dry conditions. When lake levels drop, the country relies on gas and coal to provide energy. Eliminating fossil fuels will require finding an alternative source to avoid spikes in energy costs during droughts.
Business NZ’s executive director John Carnegie told Bloomberg he believes Ardern needs to balance her goals with affordability, stating, “It’s completely appropriate to have a focus on reducing carbon emissions, but there needs to be an open and transparent public conversation about the policies and how they are delivered.”
The coalition deal outlined a few steps towards achieving this, including investing more in solar, which currently only provides 0.1% of the country’s energy. Ardern’s plans also include switching the electricity grid to renewable energy, investing more funds into rail transport, and switching all government vehicles to green fuel within a decade.
Zero net emissions by 2050
Beyond powering the country’s electricity grid with 100% green energy, Ardern also wants to reach zero net emissions by 2050. This ambitious goal is very much in line with her focus on climate change throughout the course of her campaign. Environmental issues were one of her top priorities from the start, which increased her appeal with young voters and helped her become one of the youngest world leaders at only 37.
Reaching zero net emissions would require overcoming challenging issues like eliminating fossil fuels in vehicles. Ardern hasn’t outlined a plan for reaching this goal, but has suggested creating an independent commission to aid in the transition to a lower carbon economy.
She also set a goal of doubling the number of trees the country plants per year to 100 million, a goal she says is “absolutely achievable” using land that is marginal for farming animals.
Greenpeace New Zealand climate and energy campaigner Amanda Larsson believes that phasing out fossil fuels should be a priority for the new prime minister. She says that in order to reach zero net emissions, Ardern “must prioritize closing down coal, putting a moratorium on new fossil fuel plants, building more wind infrastructure, and opening the playing field for household and community solar.”
A worldwide shift to renewable energy
Addressing climate change is becoming more of a priority around the world and many governments are assessing how they can reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and switch to environmentally-friendly energy sources. Sustainable energy is becoming an increasingly profitable industry, giving companies more of an incentive to invest.
Ardern isn’t alone in her climate concerns, as other prominent world leaders like Justin Trudeau and Emmanuel Macron have made renewable energy a focus of their campaigns. She isn’t the first to set ambitious goals, either. Sweden and Norway share New Zealand’s goal of net zero emissions by 2045 and 2030, respectively.
Scotland already sources more than half of its electricity from renewable sources and aims to fully transition by 2020, while France announced plans in September to stop fossil fuel production by 2040. This would make it the first country to do so, and the first to end the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles.
Many parts of the world still rely heavily on coal, but if these countries are successful in phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to renewable resources, it could serve as a turning point. As other world leaders see that switching to sustainable energy is possible – and profitable – it could be the start of a worldwide shift towards environmentally-friendly energy.
5 Easy Things You Can Do to Make Your Home More Sustainable
Increasing your home’s energy efficiency is one of the smartest moves you can make as a homeowner. It will lower your bills, increase the resale value of your property, and help minimize our planet’s fast-approaching climate crisis. While major home retrofits can seem daunting, there are plenty of quick and cost-effective ways to start reducing your carbon footprint today. Here are five easy projects to make your home more sustainable.
1. Weather stripping
If you’re looking to make your home more energy efficient, an energy audit is a highly recommended first step. This will reveal where your home is lacking in regards to sustainability suggests the best plan of attack.
Some form of weather stripping is nearly always advised because it is so easy and inexpensive yet can yield such transformative results. The audit will provide information about air leaks which you can couple with your own knowledge of your home’s ventilation needs to develop a strategic plan.
Make sure you choose the appropriate type of weather stripping for each location in your home. Areas that receive a lot of wear and tear, like popular doorways, are best served by slightly more expensive vinyl or metal options. Immobile cracks or infrequently opened windows can be treated with inexpensive foams or caulking. Depending on the age and quality of your home, the resulting energy savings can be as much as 20 percent.
2. Programmable thermostats
Programmable thermostats have tremendous potential to save money and minimize unnecessary energy usage. About 45 percent of a home’s energy is earmarked for heating and cooling needs with a large fraction of that wasted on unoccupied spaces. Programmable thermostats can automatically lower the heat overnight or shut off the air conditioning when you go to work.
Every degree Fahrenheit you lower the thermostat equates to 1 percent less energy use, which amounts to considerable savings over the course of a year. When used correctly, programmable thermostats reduce heating and cooling bills by 10 to 30 percent. Of course, the same result can be achieved by manually adjusting your thermostats to coincide with your activities, just make sure you remember to do it!
3. Low-flow water hardware
With the current focus on carbon emissions and climate change, we typically equate environmental stability to lower energy use, but fresh water shortage is an equal threat. Installing low-flow hardware for toilets and showers, particularly in drought prone areas, is an inexpensive and easy way to cut water consumption by 50 percent and save as much as $145 per year.
Older toilets use up to 6 gallons of water per flush, the equivalent of an astounding 20.1 gallons per person each day. This makes them the biggest consumer of indoor water. New low-flow toilets are standardized at 1.6 gallons per flush and can save more than 20,000 gallons a year in a 4-member household.
Similarly, low-flow shower heads can decrease water consumption by 40 percent or more while also lowering water heating bills and reducing CO2 emissions. Unlike early versions, new low-flow models are equipped with excellent pressure technology so your shower will be no less satisfying.
4. Energy efficient light bulbs
An average household dedicates about 5 percent of its energy use to lighting, but this value is dropping thanks to new lighting technology. Incandescent bulbs are quickly becoming a thing of the past. These inefficient light sources give off 90 percent of their energy as heat which is not only impractical from a lighting standpoint, but also raises energy bills even further during hot weather.
New LED and compact fluorescent options are far more efficient and longer lasting. Though the upfront costs are higher, the long term environmental and financial benefits are well worth it. Energy efficient light bulbs use as much as 80 percent less energy than traditional incandescent and last 3 to 25 times longer producing savings of about $6 per year per bulb.
5. Installing solar panels
Adding solar panels may not be the easiest, or least expensive, sustainability upgrade for your home, but it will certainly have the greatest impact on both your energy bills and your environmental footprint. Installing solar panels can run about $15,000 – $20,000 upfront, though a number of government incentives are bringing these numbers down. Alternatively, panels can also be leased for a much lower initial investment.
Once operational, a solar system saves about $600 per year over the course of its 25 to 30-year lifespan, and this figure will grow as energy prices rise. Solar installations require little to no maintenance and increase the value of your home.
From an environmental standpoint, the average five-kilowatt residential system can reduce household CO2 emissions by 15,000 pounds every year. Using your solar system to power an electric vehicle is the ultimate sustainable solution serving to reduce total CO2 emissions by as much as 70%!
These days, being environmentally responsible is the hallmark of a good global citizen and it need not require major sacrifices in regards to your lifestyle or your wallet. In fact, increasing your home’s sustainability is apt to make your residence more livable and save you money in the long run. The five projects listed here are just a few of the easy ways to reduce both your environmental footprint and your energy bills. So, give one or more of them a try; with a small budget and a little know-how, there is no reason you can’t start today.